Private universities urged to think ahead of enrolment drop

Japan’s private universities, representing 80% of national higher education enrolment and facing a battle for survival owing to an ongoing decline in the student population, are being urged to be proactive about efforts to optimise the size and shape of their institutions.

Estimates by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology indicate that 22 universities are now at “particularly high risk” of financial shortfalls with less than four years of financial durability, a figure that is expected to rise to 85 in 2036.

That number is expected to surge, doubling to 170 institutions in 2040, when the number of university entrants in Japan is projected to decline from 630,000 in 2024 to 460,000.

Official statistics indicate that the steepest decline in enrolment is taking place outside of metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Osaka, a trend linked to youth moving to cities.

Maintaining social functions

At a press conference last month, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Yohei Matsumoto said the government fears that “a sudden wave of university closures will occur from 2035 onwards, which could have a negative impact on society as a whole, including on human resource development.

“While it is true that the number of students may decline, each university will naturally have certain educational functions necessary to maintain social functions,” he said.

“In that sense, we believe that the number of students and the number of universities are not necessarily linked. This is why we must work together with prefectures and other local governments to consider how to shape education in each region and then, based on that, determine how to rethink the future of education.”

The ministry unveiled its Comprehensive Policy for Appropriate Quantitative Scale of Universities (English translation) starting this April, which aims to optimise the size and strengthen the functions of schools and universities through policies such as identifying the type and size of institution necessary to secure human resources for local medical care, welfare, industry and other functions.

It also envisages expanding the science, engineering and digital fields in large private schools, downsizing humanities and social science departments to improve the quality of education, and promoting the “smooth withdrawal of universities” and “enrolment management” for international students.

Quotas unfilled

Private universities offering four-year degrees represent 600 of Japan’s total of 800 universities, which includes 100 national universities and 100 public universities supported by prefectural governments.

Data released in 2024 by the Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation of the Private Schools of Japan indicates that 60% of private institutions – mostly small and rural private universities – fell short of fulfilling the official quota of gaining 80% of newly enrolled students, a condition for being awarded public subsidies.

In an interview, Tadahiko Fukuhara, president of the organisation, explained that smaller universities with liberal arts curricula are currently exploring initiatives such as mergers with larger universities or education institutions to meet financial and sustainability challenges.

It is recognised that collaborations between national, public and smaller private universities can offer a more diverse range of subjects. The development of online curricula, such as those offered by the Zen University, which opened in 2025 and enrols almost 5,000 students, is also being considered.

“Smaller institutions outside urban areas play an important role by contributing local human resources that support local development. Closing them down completely is not the answer,” he told University World News.

Private universities rely heavily on student fees for their survival, as government subsidies only provide about 10% of overall expenditures. Average tuition fees are around JPY1 million annually.

Fukuhara also pointed to the fact that only 60% of Japan’s 18-year-olds are in universities. “Survival for Japanese private universities depends on the ability to offer curricula that can appeal to more students who are looking for an education that caters to the changing labour market,” he said.

Quality-orientated education

Senior Associate Professor Yushi Inaba, who teaches management at the International Christian University, one of the larger private higher education institutions in the country with relatively high student enrolment, said depopulation in the rural areas is linked to student migration to cities where there are more jobs.

“The government will support regional universities under conditions that meet innovative management strategies that will produce local talent for regional development,” he said in an interview.

Inaba said he views the anticipated dwindling of private universities in Japan as a positive development. “The population decline is contributing to a more quality-orientated Japanese higher education sector,” he noted

He said an example was the opening up of women’s universities to co-education and the absorption of two-year colleges into their four-year counterparts. Other measures to shore up financial stability involve increasing the intake of international students and establishing new departments, he added.

A case in point is Takeo Asia University, launched by Asahi Gakuen (the Los Angeles Japanese School), which is scheduled to start a four-year programme in Asian languages and culture in 2027.

The university is located in the Saga Prefecture on Kyushu, Japan’s most southern island, which has only two universities. Its dean, Yuki Konagaya, a researcher on Mongolia, explained in an interview that the university is “aimed at providing local students with higher education that supports ongoing and future regional needs”.

The Japanese-language curriculum will develop graduates who are knowledgeable in countries such as Thailand, China, Korea, and Taiwan with the objective of deepening understanding about Asia and fostering cross-border collaborations. The university will be able to access local subsidies.

Even some of Japan’s more prestigious national universities are struggling.

In 2023, Japanese media reported that some of these universities were selling off properties and had also shut down facilities to meet rising energy costs. For example, the Tokyo University of Arts, a leading national institution, citing “budget reductions”, sold off pianos and restricted electricity usage.