In an era of polycrisis, universities must be crisis ready

Over the past decade, the world has lurched from one major crisis to another with barely a pause or a catch of breath between them. Once-in-a-generation shocks now appear to arrive with increasing frequency, sometimes overlapping and sometimes compounding.

Some of the major events of the past decade include Brexit (2016) within the European context, the COVID-19 pandemic (2019), the Russia-Ukraine war (2022), the acceleration of generative AI (from 2022 onwards), and the Israel-Gaza war (2023) and the 2026 regional escalation involving Israel, the US and Iran, along with ongoing climate-driven disasters and the global cost of living crisis, all of which continue to shape student and staff experiences.

This is what scholars call a polycrisis: when several distinct crises (economic, environmental, geopolitical, social or technological) hit at once and intensify each other, creating a far bigger disruption than any of them would alone.

The historian Adam Tooze popularised the term to describe a world in which crises are no longer isolated events but a wider, interconnected system of instability.

The interaction of crises challenges societies’ ability to respond, creating a sense of disorientation. He wrote: “What makes the crises of the past 15 years so disorientating is that it no longer seems plausible to point to a single cause and, by implication, a single fix.”

Although some scholars argue otherwise, stating that “there is nothing exceptional or permanent about the current turmoil per se”, it still doesn’t change the fact that universities, despite their reputations as stable institutions, are deeply entangled in this new reality, which increasingly feels like the age of permanent disruptions.

Brexit exposed reliance

Brexit was the first major geopolitical shock of the decade for UK universities. It also exposed how heavily the sector had come to rely on international student income and cross-border collaboration to sustain its financial model and global identity.

The 2016 referendum and its aftermath reshaped student recruitment, staff mobility, reliance on international student fees, research funding and international partnerships.

EU student and staff numbers fell after the loss of home-fee status and the end of friction-free European mobility. Participation in EU research programmes became uncertain or significantly constrained for a period.

Brexit revealed that universities are not insulated from geopolitical decisions. They are directly affected by shifts in national policy, international relations and public sentiment.

Pandemic demonstrated adaptability

Just as the UK sector was adjusting to Brexit, COVID-19 arrived. Campuses closed across the world, teaching moved online at unprecedented speed.

Zoom and MS Teams became the default classroom for teaching, and meeting and social space, even for graduation ceremonies. Staff and students faced isolation, burnout and uncertainty, leading to mental health and well-being issues.

Yet, the pandemic also demonstrated universities’ capability for rapid adaptation despite being perceived, at times, as red-tape heavy, cumbersome and Byzantine. Digital learning tools matured quickly.

Different assessment formats were rapidly redesigned. Remote collaboration quickly became normalised. The crisis accelerated digital transformation that might otherwise have taken a decade.

This quick adaptation to the new world didn’t eliminate the psychological and organisational aftershocks. Students who began their degrees online reported challenges with belonging and
confidence once they returned to campus.

Staff workload increased. COVID-19 continues to shape UK universities through heightened focus on student and staff wellbeing, in conjunction with economic factors and financial strain from policy changes like international student levies.

AI challenges assumptions

The arrival of generative AI, specifically ChatGPT, at the end of 2022 brought a different kind of disruption. It has challenged long-standing assumptions about learning, teaching and assessment, academic integrity and beyond.

AI tools capable of producing essays, code, music, infographics and many more in seconds forced universities to rethink curricula, what learning outcomes mean and how they can be measured.

University leaders have become increasingly concerned about issues such as ethical considerations, AI integration complexity, plagiarism risk, resistance to change and lack of clarity on regulatory guidelines, among other concerns.

Universities have been required to articulate their purpose and value with renewed clarity and consistency.

Geopolitical tensions close at hand

Universities often celebrate their global footprint – international campuses, diverse student bodies, cross-border partnerships and research networks that span continents.

Yet, this same global reach means that geopolitical tensions, conflicts or wars rarely remain elsewhere. Their impact goes beyond borders, impacting students, staff and research outcomes.

Regional crises are increasingly becoming global crises because of economic interdependence, geopolitical fragmentation and crossborder institutional networks.

When crises erupt, international students with ties to affected regions may experience a complex mix of feelings and emotions, including grief, fear, guilt, anger and isolation, especially if their families, friends and communities are affected.

Staff are similarly exposed: colleagues based in overseas campuses, those travelling for fieldwork, conferences or international collaborations and partnerships can face sudden mobility restrictions and safety concerns as well as the emotional strain of witnessing or following events closely.

Even those physically distant from these events can experience deteriorating mental health. The result is a sector whose global identity becomes a source of vulnerability as well as strength at times, one which requires universities to think carefully about preparedness, pastoral support and the ability to operate across politically volatile landscapes.

The challenge of universities during geopolitical tensions is not only operational, which can often be mitigated by moving classes online, but also emotional, which requires sustained empathy, careful communication and spaces for open dialogue.

Climate, inflation and the cost of living crisis

Layered on top of these geopolitical and technological shocks, there are also slow-burning but increasingly destabilising pressures. Climate change is already affecting travel, research and fieldwork.

Rising inflation, interest rates and cost of living have hit students. Shortages of affordable accommodation, financial stress and mental health problems are now common concerns, eroding wellbeing and widening inequalities.

Living with ‘minibreaks’ between crises

Taken together, these major events illustrate a new pattern: universities no longer face occasional disruptions but a near-continuous cycle of shocks. The assumption that stability is the norm and disruption is the exception does not hold. This pattern may well continue.

This suggests the need for flexible, scenario-based planning approaches that allow universities to adapt quickly as conditions shift.

Instead of a crisis response, universities need crisis readiness. Instead of relying on long-term strategies that assume predictable conditions, they may benefit from flexible systems that can adapt quickly.

Instead of treating each disruption as isolated, they can recognise how crises interact. For instance, how the pandemic affects mental health, which affects learning, retention, finances, etcetera.

Similarly: how a regional conflict can trigger chain reactions inside a globally connected university: disrupting international travel; fieldwork, placements and exchange programmes; causing visa delays and border closures; reduced enrolments; and affecting campus tensions and student and staff well-being as well as attendance and performance.

Universities cannot control global events, but they can strengthen their capacity to navigate them. They operate under conditions where responses are scrutinised and expectations diverge, but delayed or unclear communication can undermine trust, heighten anxiety among staff and students and weaken the sense of institutional stability.

Dr Fadime Sahin is a course lead and senior lecturer in accounting and finance at the University of Portsmouth, UK.

This article is a commentary. Commentary articles are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of University World News.